The Bank of Ghana is expected to reduce its policy rate by between 250 and 300 basis points at its next Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting in November 2025, according to IC Research.

The financial analytics firm attributes the move to a further decline in inflation during October 2025, as Ghana’s economy continues its path toward price stability.

Recent data shows that headline inflation fell sharply to 9.4% year-on-year in September 2025, marking the first time it has returned to the central bank’s medium-term target band since August 2021. The drop exceeded IC Research’s forecast of a 190-basis-point decline.

The report revealed that goods inflation, which makes up 72.5% of Ghana’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) basket, dropped by 270 basis points to 11.2%. Meanwhile, services inflation eased slightly by 60 basis points to 4.8% year-on-year.

“The return to single-digit inflation in September 2025 confirms that Ghana’s economy has moved decisively toward price stability after more than four years of double-digit inflation,” IC Research noted.

The firm added that while some upside risks remain due to recent exchange rate movements and rising energy prices, the overall inflation outlook continues to improve.

“We believe the authorities will seek to preserve these gains through consistent policy measures. The sustained moderation in inflation further supports the case for another cut in the Bank of Ghana policy rate, which could also lower domestic bond yields in the fourth quarter of 2025,” IC Research added.

The Bank of Ghana previously reduced the policy rate from 25% to 21.5% in September 2025, following signs of easing inflationary pressure. Analysts believe a further cut to 19% would enhance borrowing conditions and support private-sector growth.