The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that Ghana’s debt-to-GDP ratio will reach 59.1 percent by the end of 2025. This forecast was captured in the October 2025 Fiscal Monitor Report, released during the IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings in Washington, D.C.

The new estimate is slightly below the 60 percent target set by the Ghanaian government for the same period. According to the IMF, the country’s debt ratio is expected to decline further to 56.1 percent in 2026, 53.7 percent in 2027, and 51.3 percent in 2028.

By 2028, Ghana is projected to perform better than the 55 percent debt-to-GDP target under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Programme, which seeks to restore the nation’s debt sustainability and promote fiscal stability.

Recent data from the Bank of Ghana show that as of July 2025, the debt-to-GDP ratio stood at 44.9 percent, equivalent to GH¢628.8 billion. Analysts believe the figure could fall further if progress continues under the debt restructuring programme.

Although uncertainty remains about whether the debt level might rise again, many economists say Ghana’s ongoing reforms could lead to a more stable debt position by the end of 2025. The current IMF-supported programme requires the government to bring the debt ratio down to 55 percent to maintain long-term sustainability.

Economists consider the debt-to-GDP model a key indicator of a country’s ability to repay debt without defaulting. A higher ratio can signal financial pressure, but the actual risk depends on growth performance and repayment capacity.

The IMF noted that these projections reflect a post-debt restructuring scenario, highlighting Ghana’s continued efforts to manage its liabilities and rebuild fiscal strength.

During the Fiscal Monitor briefing, Davide Furceri, Deputy Division Chief at the IMF Research Department, urged Ghana to strengthen its Public Financial Management (PFM) systems to prevent future debt crises.

The government, meanwhile, has confirmed that it has successfully restructured a significant portion of its bilateral debts and is finalising talks with commercial creditors. The Ministry of Finance announced that Ghana has signed restructuring agreements with six bilateral partners as part of efforts to stabilise public finances.

Authorities have reaffirmed their commitment to fiscal discipline, pledging to avoid returning to unsustainable borrowing. The medium-term debt management strategy (2025–2028) outlines a balanced financing approach consistent with the Public Financial Management Act, Section 57.

The government maintains that its debt management approach will continue to rely on debt sustainability analysis and will be strengthened by reforms under the IMF programme.